Time: 13:00-15:00 (UK Time), Wednesday, 7 February 2024
Presenter: Dr. Alexandre Kopoin, Principal Research Economist, African Development Bank (AfDB)
Co-author: Prof. Issouf Soumaré, Department of Finance, Insurance and Real Estate & Laboratory for Financial Engineering, Laval University
Chair: Prof. Victor Murinde, SOAS University of London
Online venue: Click here to join the seminar on Microsoft Teams (For any inquiry about how to join the online seminar, please contact Dr. Meng Xie at xm1@soas.ac.uk)
Abstract
This paper revisits the determinants of sovereign ratings and spreads in developing and emerging economies. The rationale for revisiting this issue lies on the fact that, in recent years, many of these developing and emerging countries, particularly in Africa, have questioned their assigned rating and the associated spreads, arguing that the credit risk assessment of their economies is overstated on the international lending market, the so-called “non-justified perceived risk”. Using sovereign ratings from the three main credit rating agencies and sovereign bond spreads from JP Morgan EMBI, we identify factors that affect both countries ratings and their credit spreads. It turns out that the market overpriced loans to African countries when compared to their peers.
Keywords: Sovereign rating, Credit spread, Credit risk
Presenter
Dr Alexandre Kopoin is a Principal Research Economist in the Macroeconomic Policy, Debt Sustainability and Forecasting Division of the African Development Bank. He is an experienced macroeconomist, specialized in fiscal and monetary policy, applied econometrics, international trade and economic forecasting. He started his career as an economist at the Quebec’s Ministry of Finance, then as a Macroeconomic Modelling Consultant at the World Bank and later moved to the OECD as a Research Economist working on various topics including macroeconomic modelling, economic forecasting and trade policy. He taught advanced macroeconomics, applied econometrics and optimization techniques at Laval University (Canada) and has published in different academic publications. He holds a PhD in economics and an M.S. in Financial Engineering from Laval University, an M.A. in Statistics and Quantitative Economics from ENSEA, Côte d’Ivoire, and a B.Sc. in Mathematics and Physics from INP-HB, Côte d’Ivoire.
Co-author
Prof. Issouf SOUMARÉ is Full Professor of Finance and the Director of the Laboratory for Financial Engineering of Université Laval (LABIFUL) in Canada. From 2012 to 2020, he was the Director of International Relations of the Faculty of Business Administration at Université Laval in Canada. In 2011-2012, he was the Director of the PhD and MSc research programs of the same Business School. He worked for the African Development Bank (AfDB) at the former Risk Management Unit from 1996 to 1998. Prof. Issouf SOUMARÉ is also President-Founder of SOUMARÉ UNIVERSITY in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire. He is Co-President of the Pan-African Institute for Economic and Financial Governance (IPAGEF) and the Vice-President for Program of the Africa Business and Entrepreneurship Research Society (ABERS). He is President of the Scientific Council of ENSEA (Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire). He is a Resource Person for the African Economic Research Consortium (AERC), member of the Scientific Council of the Moroccan Financial Market Authority (AMMC) and member of the Scientific Committee of the “Revue Économique et Monétaire” of the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO). Prof. Issouf SOUMARÉ holds a PhD in Business Administration in Finance from the University of British Columbia (UBC, Canada), MSc in Financial Engineering from Université Laval (Canada), MSc in Statistics and Quantitative Economic (Ingénieur Statisticien Économiste) from ENSEA and ‘Maitrise’ & BSc in Applied Mathematics from Université Félix Houphouët-Boigny (Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire). Prof. Issouf SOUMARÉ is also a certified PRM (Professional Risk Manager) and FRM (Financial Risk Manager). He is ASC (Chartered Director) from the College des Administrateurs de Sociétés (Directors’ College) of Université Laval.